The trade surplus seasonally expands, the export recovery process will continue to fluctuate

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 11th, China’s exports continued to improve in September in October. Affected by seasonal factors, the trade surplus in October was US$23.98 billion, a substantial increase of US$11 billion from the previous month. Analysts pointed out that exports have bottomed out and the main line of investment recovery is worth looking forward to. However, the demand in the international market is unlikely to recover significantly in the short term, and uncertainties and uncertainties in foreign trade exports still exist.

Export station steady billions of dollars

Exports stood firm for hundreds of millions of dollars for four consecutive months, and the chain of decline continued to narrow. Among the export commodities, the year-on-year decline in the export of China's major labor-intensive products was less than the 20.5% decline in the overall export.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, believes that the background of the improvement of exports is the bottoming out of the overseas economy. The US GDP in the third quarter increased by 3.5%, and the short-term exports will gradually recover. It is expected that exports will turn positive in December.

From January to October, the EU, the United States, and Japan continued to be China's top three trading partners. The bilateral trade value was US$292.42 billion, US$239.36 billion, and US$182.34 billion, respectively, down 18.7%, 14.9%, and 19.3% year-on-year. In addition, Brazil has surpassed India to become China's ninth largest trading partner with a slight advantage. The bilateral trade with Brazil totaled US$34.76 billion, down 18.6% year-on-year.

The just-concluded 106th Canton Fair also showed signs of a rebound in export sales. The export turnover of the current Canton Fair was US$30.47 billion, an increase of US$4.24 billion from the Spring Fair this year, an increase of 16.2%. Overseas buyers have picked up. A total of 188,170 overseas buyers from 212 countries and regions attended the fair, an increase of 22,734 compared with this spring's fair, an increase of 13.7%.

Imports exceed expected growth, indicating port pressure

However, imports fell by 6.4% year-on-year in October, which was greater than the 3.5% decline in September, and exceeded market expectations. Affected by the decline in imports, the trade surplus in October reached US$23.99 billion, almost double the amount of US$12.9 billion in September, and far exceeded expectations.

Li Jianfeng, a macro analyst at Shanghai Securities, believes that processing trade accounts for a large proportion of China's export structure, indicating that there are difficulties in exporting later.

For the expansion of the surplus in October, Li Xunlei believes that the trade surplus is a seasonal expansion. Due to the different ordering period at home and abroad, the surplus in October has increased from September.

Minister of Commerce Chen Deming had previously predicted that the crisis would cause the global trade volume to decline this year. China’s trade surplus this year could reach $18-190 billion, a decrease of $100 billion from last year.

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