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Huitong News – March 26th to April 1st, March 30th is Good Friday, so many stock exchanges are closed all day. Since April 1st, when the Oceania region entered the winter season, the time difference between Sydney and other places in southeastern Australia was reduced to 2 hours, and the time difference between New Zealand and Beijing was reduced to 4 hours. From March 26th to April 1st, multi-country GDP data has come together, and many Fed amnesties will deliver a speech. On the international holidays, March 30 is the Good Friday, so many stock exchanges are closed all day. In terms of time difference conversion, the weather time in the Oceania region has decreased to 2 hours since April 1 in the Oceania region, and the time difference between New Zealand and Beijing has decreased to 4 hours.
Market hotspots this week include:
1 Monday (March 26), France's fourth quarter GDP annual rate final value;
On Tuesday (March 27), William Dudley, Chairman of the New York Fed and FOMC Permanent Press, delivered a speech; Loretta Mester, Chairman of the US Cleveland Fed, and 2018 FOMC Voter, attended the Julis-Rabinowitz Community of Princeton University. An event hosted by the Policy and Financial Center; the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, USA, and the 2018 FOMC voter Raphael Bostic attended a dialogue at the HOPEGlobal Forums 2018 annual meeting;
The final value of the Eurozone consumer confidence index in March; the US Consumer Council Confidence Index for March;
On Wednesday (March 28), the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, USA, and the 2018 FOMC voter Raphael Bostic attended a symposium at the Atlanta Society of Finance and Investment Professionals; the final quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of the United States; PCE price index annualized quarter rate final value;
4th Thursday (March 29th), the final rate of the fourth quarter GDP in the United Kingdom; the annual rate of the US PCE price index in February; the annual rate of GDP in Canada in January; the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in March;
5Friday (March 30), International Holiday Preview: Australian Sydney Stock Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange of China, New York Stock Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), precious metals, US crude oil and foreign exchange contract transactions This day is the day of Good Friday and is closed all day;
The Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange do not provide Hong Kong stock exchange services for this day as a public holiday for the Good Friday of Hong Kong;
Due to the Easter holiday, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China suspended the account precious metals, account precious metals index, account energy, account base metals and account agricultural products business from 4:00 pm to 3:00 pm on March 30;
The financial markets of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and other countries have been closed since March 30 (Friday) due to Good Friday and Easter holidays, and will resume trading on April 3 (Tuesday) at 15:00. ;
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker gave a speech on the economic outlook at the New York Business and Economic Association luncheon;
6 Saturday (March 31), China's official manufacturing PMI in March;
On the 7th (April 1st), the weather time in the Oceania region was reduced to 2 hours from April 1st in the Oceania region, and the time difference between New Zealand and Beijing was reduced to 4 hours.
Monday opening market:
Foreign exchange market: There was no obvious gap in the opening of the foreign exchange market this week, but most of the major direct currencies were slightly higher in the Asian market in early trading. As of press time, the euro against the US dollar reported 1.2359; the pound against the US dollar reported 1.4150. The trend of the yen has diverged and has not followed the rise. The dollar has risen more than 10 points after the opening of the yen to 104.80.
Precious metals: Spot gold hit a high of $1,351 per ounce after the market opened on Monday, but has since fallen back slightly, as reported before the release of 1349.09 US dollars / ounce. Spot silver also saw a slight upside after the opening, as reported before the release of 16.60 US dollars / ounce.
Oil market: boosted by the listing of China's crude oil futures, US WTI crude oil futures rose to around 66.55 US dollars per barrel since January 25th. If it can rise above this high level, it will refresh the highest level since December 2014. . As of press time, the US WTI crude oil futures contract was reported at 66.36 US dollars / barrel, up 0.37%. In addition, Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $70.36 per barrel.
Review last week
1. The Bank of Japan announced a summary of its monetary policy comments for March. The summary of the comments shows that it is necessary to continue to implement the easing policy. The 2% inflation target is still far from reaching, and the Bank of Japan should not consider the normalization of monetary policy. It is important to continue implementing QE until the 2% inflation target is achieved.
2. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia said that low interest rates have played a role in reducing unemployment and raising inflation. Australia's GDP growth rate in 2018 is expected to exceed potential growth, while the CPI in 2018 will rise to slightly above 2%.
3. The EU countries reached an agreement on the EU parliamentary elections on May 23-26.
4. The annual CPI annual rate, core CPI annual rate and retail price index of the UK in February were all less than expected.
5. The number of ILO employment in the UK in January was the largest increase since July 2017. The average annual salary of the UK including the dividend in January was the largest increase since September 2015. Although the UK's economic growth has been hampered, the UK unemployment rate has remained stable and wage growth has risen, indicating that the UK job market is still healthy.
6. The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting, announcing a 25 basis point rate hike to 1.5%-1.75%, and expects inflation to accelerate in the coming months. In addition, the Fed’s median interest rate forecast for 2018 has not changed, suggesting that it will still raise interest rates three times. But its statement shows that it will raise interest rates even more steeply in 2019-2020. Since the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar have a linked exchange rate system, when the Fed raises interest rates, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will generally follow the change of interest rates. Therefore, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised the basic interest rate to 2.0%.
The new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Powell, set a record for the first time attending the interest rate decision press conference: the quarterly press conference lasted a total of 43 minutes, the shortest since the Federal Reserve began its press conference in April 2011.
7. The New Zealand Federal Reserve said that uncertainty still exists and policies may need to be adjusted. Inflation is expected to rise to 2%, but will fall further in the near future.
8. The US House of Representatives received enough votes to pass the $1.3 trillion government spending bill, which provided funding for government operations before September. The US spending bill will include an increase of $80 billion in defense spending due by September 30, the largest additional defense spending in 15 years.
9. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged with a 7:2 vote rate. Two members supported interest rate hikes. According to the OIS (overnight index swap) market data model, the probability of a rate hike in May rose from 65.5% to 73.5%. It is good for the pound; however, many economists had expected this result before the resolution, and the Fed’s resolution was not as good as expected for the hawks overnight, and the pound’s surge has accumulated a lot of profit-making positions. As the profit is exhausted, the pound rushes high. After diving.
10. The United States announced that it will impose tariffs on Chinese exports of 50 billion US dollars against Chinese intellectual property infringement. In view of this, China announced a counter-measure against tariffs on US$3 billion in US goods.
11. Putin won the Russian presidential election with 76.69% of the votes. Subsequently, he delivered a national speech and telephoned the leaders of many countries.
List of major global market conditions
stock market
The British FTSE closed down 30.65 points on Friday (March 23), down 0.44% to 6921.94 points. The Nikkei 225 closed down 974.13 points on Friday, down 4.51% to 20617.86.
commodity
US crude oil closed up 1.44 points last Friday, or 2.42%, to 65.74 points. Spot palladium closed down 8.51 points on Friday, down 0.86% to 976.34 points.
In addition to the above quotes for gold, silver and crude oil, Huitong.com also quotes you for the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Gold 9999 closed down 0.02 points on Friday, down 0.01% to 274.95 points. The gold extension closed up 0.47 points on Friday, or 0.17%, to 275.24 points.
Foreign exchange
The US dollar index closed down 0.34 points on Friday, down 0.38% to 89.52 points. The euro against the dollar closed up 0.0051 points on Friday, or 0.41%.
International financial information
1. Federal Reserve Kaplan: Supporting the previous decision to raise interest rates, it is reasonable to raise interest rates three times in 2018. The Fed’s 2.1% inflation forecast indicates that the target is symmetrical.
Boston-based Fed President Rosen Glenn delivered a speech at the 10th Annual International Research Forum on Monetary Policy co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Board.
The US House of Representatives Finance Group said that Federal Reserve Governor Quars will testify on April 17.
2. US President Trump signed a spending bill totaling $1.3 trillion to provide funds for the government to run until the end of September this year to lift the government's closure crisis. He then tweeted that he had signed a spending bill for consideration of national security.
3. Former WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy: Bowing to protectionism will hurt everyone. International trade in the 21st century is a rules-based game, not based on strength or power.
4. Ripley co-founder Jed McCCaleb said in an interview that digital currency and blockchain technology require a decentralized network to succeed, and using a centralized payment network would result in a system that is not as good as a SWIFT or PayPal.
5. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Venezuelan oil coin “petro†has nothing to do with Russia. Artyom Kozhin, deputy director of the Information Department of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the Russian Ministry of Finance did not participate in the creation of the Venezuelan oil coin “petroâ€. Any speculation on this issue is false.
6. The Governor of Tennessee has signed a bill to recognize blockchain data and smartdesks under state law.
7. Ying'ao strengthens financial cooperation on digital currency. Recently, the British government established the “Encryption Assets Working Group†and created the “Australian-Australian Financial Bridgeâ€, which aims to strengthen public-private partnerships and improve the management of the two jurisdictions.
8. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, the British Embassy in Russia said that 23 British diplomats who were declared "unwelcome figures" have left Russia.
9. Trump said that we provide $656.4 billion in funds for national defense; no one will say that our military power will be forgotten, and they used to mention this in the past; we spend a lot of money on nuclear system renewal, in a certain In some cases, new ones are built directly, such as nuclear submarines; therefore we have the strongest nuclear forces in the world, they will be in perfect condition, and we hope that there will never be a chance to use them.
10. Spain’s “National Newspaperâ€: The country’s Supreme Court judge, Pablo Lerena, issued a European arrest warrant against the former President of the Catalonia Autonomous Region Puigmont and some politicians.
11. The EU sanctions against Russia “angered†German companies. Many German entrepreneurs hope that after Putin’s re-election, Russia-Europe relations can be improved.
12. According to the Sunday Times, British government officials were quoted as saying: Prime Minister Teresa May plans to spend about £4 billion on the UK's national health care system after leaving the European Union.
13. Italian Prime Minister Real Tiloni has submitted his resignation, but before the new government officially formed, True Tiloni will continue to manage Italian government affairs. The Italian Five-Star Movement Party said it is open to any government-organized cabinet negotiations.
14. The US International Trade Commission made a final ruling that the United States should not impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on crystalline silicon imported from Australia and other four countries. This means that the “double-reverse†tariff previously determined by the US Department of Commerce has been overturned. This is the second recent decision by the US International Trade Commission to be inconsistent with the final decision of the Ministry of Commerce.
15. Sina: U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin said that the United States is expected to sign the South Korean trade agreement "very soon"; according to the agreement, South Korea will reduce steel exports; "cautiously optimistic" that it will reach a trade agreement with China.
16. The EU announced a legislative proposal to adjust the taxation rules for large Internet companies. If this proposal becomes law, the tax revenues of EU member states from the world's major Internet companies will increase a lot.
17. According to the Wall Street Journal, San Francisco Fed President John Williams will become a popular candidate for the New York Fed chairman. The New York Fed is the most powerful of the US Federal Reserve, because the New York Fed manages Wall Street and has permanent voting rights in the Fed's decision-making body, FOMC, which can basically be considered second only to the Fed chairman. The current New York Fed President Dudley will step down in the summer of 2018.
18. The New Zealand Federal Reserve announced its new policy target agreement: the inflation zone has not changed and new employment targets have been added. Orr, the new chairman of the New Zealand Federal Reserve, said it was happy to see the new agreement firmly focus on price stability.
Domestic financial information
★ domestic macro
1. The "2018 Annual Meeting of China Development High-Level Forum" was held on March 24-26, 2018. Li Yang, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and chairman of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, attended the forum and gave a speech on the 24th. At present, China's financial de-leverage has entered the “deep water zoneâ€. In addition to the lower leverage of local governments and enterprises, the leverage ratio of the Chinese resident sector has also attracted the attention of the regulatory authorities.
2. China’s central bank governor Yi Gang said at the China Development Forum on the 25th that the main financial work can be summarized in three sentences: one is to implement a sound and neutral monetary policy, and the other is to actively promote the reform of the financial industry. Open, the third is to lay a solid battle to prevent and resolve major risks and maintain the overall stability of the financial industry.
3. China crude oil futures will be listed on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center on March 26. The benchmark price of contracts such as SC1809 and SC1810 is 416 yuan/barrel. The biggest bright spot of China's crude oil futures is that it can be converted into gold in RMB. According to China Securities Journal: According to estimates, the transaction requires a guarantee of about 50,000 yuan. Crude oil futures are expected to achieve a good start on the first day of listing due to trade frictions leading to rising inflation expectations and geopolitics.
★ domestic stock market
1. There will be 3 new shares issued this week, namely Great Wall Technology and Bethel, which were issued on March 28, and Zhende Medical, which was issued on March 29. The three new shares have issued a total of 110 million shares, and it is estimated that the raised funds will total 1.9 billion yuan.
★ domestic property market
1. Qiu Baoxing, a member of the State Council Counselor's Office, said at the China Development Forum that the current real estate in China should have two notable features: 1 ice and fire, two cities, first-tier cities are hot, and third- and fourth-tier cities are still relatively long; 2 In the middle of the first-tier cities, we have a special phenomenon, that is, tight balance. In some cities, there is even a reverse of the price of second-hand houses and new houses, but this tight balance is actually impossible to continue; because of this, The State Council is formulating some means of regulation in the medium and long term.
2. State Council Counselor Qiu Baoxing: The real estate regulation will not be fully relaxed, but it will be adjusted according to the changes in the situation. It is impossible for housing prices to skyrocket. We must try our best to prevent it from falling.
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