Service companies cautiously respond to "new stimulus policies"

It did not occur to Lao Chen that the new production line was idle so quickly.

“Now the export situation is not very good, mainly in Europe. The situation in the domestic market is also very general, and the competition is too fierce.” Lao Chen, who owns the children's Clothing of her own brand, is now slightly tired after speaking. It is no longer A few years ago the high-spirited. In 2009, the overseas market improved, the domestic market was booming, and the textile and clothing industry was listed as a key revitalization industry. Lao Chen’s factory did some expansion, but the subsequent days were not as smooth as the old Chen had imagined.

This year’s days have been especially difficult. Lao Chen’s response is to stop one after another production line. Last month, allegations about new economic stimulus policies came to an end. “There is no need for any policy support. All support is temporary. Sooner or later, we have to face it.” Lao Chen was unusually rational this time. “Striving hard for internal strength is an inevitable choice. Two years ago, we really shouldn’t rush to the production line. Now we have shelved it. Many companies around me who were expanding and acquiring at the time have regretted it,” he said.

There are indeed many business owners who regret. Xu Xiaonian, a professor of economics and finance at China Europe International Business School, also said that among his students, most of the bosses who had been eager to expand in previous years are now mostly regretting.

Stimulus effect In 2009, the cold current of the financial crisis of the previous year had not yet receded. Some domestic companies started to move against the tide. Most of them had cash and sought their own development direction.

Lao Chen’s business is one of them.

In April of this year, he took his children's wear brand for the first time to participate in the China International Apparel Fair. “We only rented a small booth this time, first exposed a small face at the show, and then come over every year. "His words are still fresh in their memory.

This children's wear brand is their first own brand.

Before that, Lao Chen was a departmental cadre in Shanghai. His wife, Ms. Li, was the chairman of the company. The company only did OEM work and all exports.

After the financial crisis, export companies faced crises and saw the hot domestic market. Lao Chen and Ms. Li had the idea of ​​creating their own brands. Since the export market can not be given up, Lao Chen even resigned from his post and devoted himself to creating his own brand. Lao Chen's visit to Beijing to participate in the China International Garment Expo is also aimed at finding new ways for his new brand to enter major shopping malls like Shin Kong. "Their entrance fees are very high, and nobody can get in at all," he said.

Although he could not enter Shin Kong, Lao Chen’s business is still getting better and better. “Overseas markets are getting better again, and now the factory is very busy. We added four production lines. This can't be done, and it will be subcontracted.”

The brand itself is still in progress, but it's obviously a little overwhelming. In the second half of 2009, when Lao Chen talked about business, she always smiled.

Not only Lao Chen, at that time, many textile companies invested large sums of money into expansion and integration mergers and acquisitions. In addition to seeing hidden opportunities in the industry, "encouraging" from the macro level and support at the policy level are also some of the reasons why big companies "wait for opportunities."

On November 9, 2008, the Chinese government announced the implementation of large-scale economic stimulus measures. By the end of 2010, it will invest a total of 4 trillion yuan in infrastructure construction and increase bank credit. Since then, some key industries have been listed as key areas for revitalization, and textiles and apparel are among them. “There are government policies to support and companies have great enthusiasm for expansion or mergers and acquisitions. There are some supportive policies on capital, taxes, and taxes.” Lao Chen is not the exception at the time, and many companies have put the country in The support policy has made an opportunity of its own.

According to the statistics of the China Textile Industry Association, from January to November 2009, China's textile industry completed a total of 270.802 billion yuan in fixed assets investment projects with a total investment of more than 5 million yuan, an increase of 9.53% year-on-year, an increase of 0.78 over the same period last year. Percentage.

Prudent response In fact, textile and garments are far from benefiting from the “4 trillion” major industry. Relying on the engine of “investment,” the Chinese government quickly put “the throttle in the end” and quickly pulled the Chinese economy from the bottom.

Today, the "pharmaceutical effect" is excessive and the European debt crisis continues to ferment. The Chinese economy has once again been pushed to the edge of decline. Since April, investment, consumption, and industrial added value have all hit new lows for many years. The growth rate of power generation, steel production, and output of 10 non-ferrous metals have all declined in different degrees...

In May, after the executive meeting of the State Council set a tone for China's economy to “stabilize growth,” many people were thinking of “4 trillion 2.0.” This also makes increasing the investment once again become the title of justice.

Only on May 21st, more than 100 projects were approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. The total amount of approved projects is almost equal to the total of 20 days before May.

On May 24th, two steel projects in Guangxi Fangchenggang and Zhanjiang in Guangdong, with a total investment of over 130 billion yuan, were approved. When Zhanjiang mayor Wang Zhongceng walked out of the National Development and Reform Commission, he could not help but kiss the approved project documents;

On May 25, Shang Bing, the vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, revealed that this year's telecom infrastructure construction will usher in a new round of construction boom. The industry's annual investment is expected to exceed 370 billion yuan.

But this time, the company is clearly clearer and sensible than the government.

Lao Chen said: “The introduction of national encouragement policies and related incentives is an important reason why big companies dare to go against the market in the current economic situation. Even some companies obtain ** support through expansion of M&As to support internal corporate funds. There is no way to investigate the flow of money and wherever money flows.” “As long as the stimulus policies have passed, the excess production capacity cannot be digested. Now the domestic and foreign markets are not so good. My production line can only be idle,” he said. "As early as we knew, we should still try to make a transition. We shouldn't expand with a lot of heat. At the time, we spent more than 2 million on these four production lines. Fortunately, we didn't build another factory."

Xu Xiaonian also frankly stated at the Top 500 Forum for Chinese Foreign Trade Enterprises: “Among my students, many of the bosses who were eager to expand at the time have now regretted most of them.”

At the Forum on Investment and Development of Equipment Manufacturing Industry in September 2009, Cheng Zhusheng, the preparatory group for investment in the equipment manufacturing industry, had directly stated: “Although from the perspective of export growth rate and the proportion of exports, the machinery industry is experiencing rapid development. However, the start-up of the international equipment market will take time, and how much sustainability will be stimulated by the current domestic policies, and how long it will last, but it will be a fog. In the first half of the year, all kinds of subsidies are almost used, and many purchasing power in the second half of the year may be We have made advance payments in advance. Is it still a good performance in the second half of the year when the performance of the industry in the first half of the year is good? I cannot see this clearly.

This was also a problem in most industries at that time.

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, said: "The biggest bubble in China's economy is actually a capacity bubble, which means a serious excess of production capacity. This bubble reached its peak in 2008. Export manufacturing capacity expansion, while local government investment and real estate development It is also in an overheated phase, causing an expansion of production capacity."

“But after the international financial crisis in 2008, the drop in external demand caused the introduction of stimulus programs, especially the extremely loose monetary policy, which further stimulated companies to expand their production capacity. As a result, a surplus cycle was formed,” he said.

Lao Chen said: "We do not have a good way now, but the direction is rather clear. We must work hard at the high end. Only such profits can be guaranteed."